Shiny Trinket

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Its Big Jobs Friday!

Jobs:

Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) for November 210K vs. est. of 550K.

NFP for October revised from 531K to 546K

NFP for September revised from 312K to 379K

The rolling three month average is now: 378K

Wages:

Average Hourly Earnings rose by 8 cents to $31.03 (first time its ever been above $31 per hour)

MOM Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.4% which matched expectations

YOY Average Hourly Earnings rose by 4.8% which matched October's pace but was lower that the consensus estimates of 5.0%

Unemployment:

The headline Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.2% which we have not seen since February 2020 (one month before the Covid 19 shutdown).

The market was expecting 4.5%.

The U6 Underemployment Rate dropped from 8.3% down to 7.8%

The Participation Rate increased to 61.8% from 61.6%

ISM Services: We will get a very key ISM Non Manufacturing reading at 10 am today.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning we're seeing sideways movement as the markets go over jobs data. Volatility is high as conflicting jobs data shows fewer jobs then expected, but also dropping unemployment and a higher participation rate.

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

I have been in the mortgage industry since 2002, and specialize in making the loan process simple and easy to understand. If you’re a first-time homebuyer or a real estate investor, I’ll search for the right loan program and aggressive mortgage rates, and help guide you through the loan process.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.