How Rates Move:
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.
Rates Currently Trending:
Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market improved by +46 bps last week. This was enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.
Today's Rate Forecast:
Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Inflation, 2) The Fed and 3) Manufacturing
1) Inflation: We get the Fed's key measure of inflation, Core (Ex food and energy) PCE on Thursday. While the YOY readings may show a reduced rate of acceleration (giving the fed some cover), the bond market will focus on the rate of change on a MOM basis which is expected to increase by another 0.4% on top of the prior month's gain of 0.3%. The headline PCE is expected to jump a whopping 0.7% on a MOM basis.
2) The Fed: Last week the markets shifted their expectations from a 75BPS hike to a 50BPS hike at the next FOMC meeting as well as expecting the Fed to stop rate hikes sooner and start rate reductions sooner due to expectations on how their actions will crush the economy and bring on stagflation. However, that concern may shift as we hear from Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday. Here is this week's Fed schedule:
06/27 Dallas Fed MFG survey
06/28 Mary Daly
06/29 Loretta Mester, Fed Chair Powell
06/30 Fed Balance Sheet
3) Manufacturing: Is the economy slowing? We have certainly seen mixed signals. Generally, it shows up in manufacturing first. So, the markets will pay close attention to this week's manufacturing data:
06/27 Durable Goods
06/28 Richmond Fed Manufacturing
06/30 Chicago PMI
07/01 ISM Manufacturing
Treasury Sales: Here is this week's auction schedule:
06/27 Both 2 year and 5 year note auctions
06/28 7 year note auction.
Today's Potential Rate Volatility:
This morning markets are mostly treading water with a slight negative bias. Volatility has started low but expect it to spike on headline news.
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.