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How Rates Move:
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.
Rates Currently Trending: Neutral
Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market improved by +33 bps yesterday. This may have been enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.
Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral
Housing: We will get Existing Home Sales at 10 am ET. They are expected to come in at an annualized pace of 4.2M units.
Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims remained very low at 212K versus estimates of 215K. The 4 week moving average remained at 214K. Continuing Claims were at 1.812M versus the prior reading of 1.810M, so both very level readings.
Manufacturing: The April Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey was much better than expected, 15.5 versus estimates of 1.5.
The Fed: We will hear from Bowman, Williams and Bostic today.
Today's Potential Rate Volatility: High
This morning markets are seeing choppy trading within a narrow range. Volatility has started high despite the lack of meaningful movement.
Bottom Line:
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.
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