Shiny Trinket

Home Delsitings Rise:

According to RedFin's analysis of MLS data, Sellers took their home off the market at a higher pace in November

A delisting as a listing that went from active to off market without being sold. Homes delisted during the 12 weeks ending Nov. 27 could have been listed during that period or beforehand.

Sellers are taking their homes off the market because they’re often receiving no offers for the price they want to sell for, and sometimes, no offers at all. That’s due to a sharp drop in homebuyer demand driven by rising mortgage rates and persistently high home prices. While mortgage rates have dipped slightly since mid-November, the monthly mortgage payment on the median-asking-price home is still 40% higher than it was one year ago.

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market.  This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events.  When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down.  When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.  Tracking these securities real-time is critical.  For more information about the rate market, contact me directly.  I’m among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Higher

Mortgage rates are moving higher today. The MBS market improved by +68 bps last week. This was enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Higher

Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Inflation, 2) Manufacturing and 3) Central Banks:

1) Inflation: The three biggest measures of inflation are PCE, PPI and CPI. We got PCE last week and it showed additional monthly increases but less than expected, this week we will get PPI and then next week we will get CPI. PPI (8.0%) has been trending much hotter than PCE (6.0%).

2) Manufacturing: We some very weak manufacturing data last week with Chicago PMI and ISM Manufacturing. This week we will have Factory Orders, Non Farm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs but Monday's ISM Non Manufacturing/Services will take center state.

3) Central Banks: We get key interest rate decisions out of Australia and Canada.

This Week's Potential Volatility: High

This morning markets are pulling back from last weeks gains. Volatility has started high.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Rates listed herein are for market direction and trends within the industry only. No APR is given and you are not guaranteed any listed rate or any lock period of said rates. Rates are only approved when your application is submitted and locked in by the lender along with all disclosures including APR.