Shiny Trinket

Slim pickings begone

At last. Your agent is telling you that she can line up more than one or two listings for you to tour in a day. Why? Fresh listings are there for the taking, with actual time to make a decision because of a slower pace of activity after what seems like an unending sellers’ market.

While it’s not time yet for glass-half-full or full house analogies, according to Realtor.com’s Snejana Farberov, things are gradually looking up after a sluggish spring season, citing more than one million for-sale homes on the market across the U.S. Another bit of welcome news? Buyer confidence in the U.S. housing market has been on an upward trajectory, boosted by better-than-expected job and inflation reports.

It’s important not to misinterpret, however. Major affordability challenges exist and persist, driven in part by mortgage rates stuck in the mud with no tow truck in sight to pull them out, now that the Feds announced they planned to keep rates steady for the foreseeable future.

With new listings ticking up, however (increasing 3.5% from a year ago) buyers stand to gain some negotiating power over the summer months, according to Realtor’s economist Jiyai Xu. "This will be an important trend to watch, especially as regional real estate dynamics diverge and the market gradually shifts back in favor of buyers," notes Xu.

Farberov reports that the overall number of for-sale homes was up 27.5% year over year, marking the 85th straight week of annual gains in inventory.To boot, for the eighth consecutive week, there were more than 1 million listings available nationwide, marking the highest inventory level since December 2019.

Xu is careful to report that while choices for consumers have expanded, overall supply remains well below pre-pandemic levels, especially in the Midwest and Northeast, where new development has been stagnant while demand remains high. Southern metros? They now exceed pre-COVID inventory levels, fueled by faster new construction over the past several years.

“The price of the typical home increased again last week, edging up 0.9% from a year ago—but it was still down 0.3% from the beginning of 2025,” says Farberov. “The median listing price per square foot—which adjusts for changes in home size—rose 0.7% year over year.”

Xu adds, ”With inventory growing, and 1 in 5 sellers slashing prices, the pendulum is swinging back toward a balanced market, as price growth slows and buyers gain more leverage.” He also reports that homes spent five days longer than a year ago waiting for a buyer to come along and close the deal, signaling that the pace of the housing market continued to ease annually.

While the typical listing lingered unsold for 53 days last week (about the same as six years ago), it’s interesting to note that (for context) when America's housing stock was at its lowest in the spring of 2022, median time on market was as low as 28 days. No one is talking about seeing that number again anytime soon, but the rule usually says that the longer homes remain unsold, the more likely price drops will result. Time to see if that rule holds water.

Realtor, TBWS

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market improved by +33 bps last week. This may have been enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Geopolitical, 2) Jobs, 3) ISMs.

1) Geopolitical: The "Big Beautiful Bill" July 4th target is fast approaching and we are seeing major changes to the original Bill out of the House. The bond market will be sensitive to the final version out of the Senate (if it gets out of the Senate).

2) Jobs: Its the first Friday of a new month (July) and that means we get the BLS jobs data. Except that it hits on Thursday due to the holiday. We will get NFP, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, ADP, JOLTS, Challenger Job Cuts, Initial Weekly Jobless Claims and more.

3) ISMs: ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services will get a lot of attention. ISM Services slipped into contractionary territory last time around which is very unnerving for the bond market. But was it a "one off" or the start of a trend?

This Week's Potential Volatility: High

This morning markets saw some choppy sideways trading. Volatility has started at moderate to low levels but will increase with later this week before the holiday.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

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All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Rates listed herein are for market direction and trends within the industry only. No APR is given and you are not guaranteed any listed rate or any lock period of said rates. Rates are only approved when your application is submitted and locked in by the lender along with all disclosures including APR.