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How Rates Move:
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.
Rates Currently Trending:
Neutral
Mortgage rates are getting some mild support today. The MBS market worsened by -31 bps last week. This may have been enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.
This week's Rate Forecast:
Neutral
Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Inflation, 2) GDP and 3) Central Banks.
1) Inflation: After several rounds of higher PCE, CPI and PPI data, we have one last major report prior to next week's FOMC meeting. And that report is none other than the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, PCE and Core PCE. The PCE MOM data is expected to increase over last month's data.
2) GDP: We will get our first look at the 1st QTR GDP on Thursday. It is expected to come in the 2.5% range.
3) Central Banks: We get key interest rate decisions out of the world's #2 and #3 economies with the People's Bank of China and the Bank of Japan.
Treasury Dump: We have a record setting week of dumping our debt into the marketplace, we will need to see what the appetite is for the large supply that will hit.
04/23 2 year note
04/24 5 year note
04/25 7 year note
This week's Potential Rate Volatility:
High
This morning markets are getting some mild support. Volatility has started low but will increase later in the week.
Bottom Line:
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.
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