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Eric & Matt Gausepohl

Summit Lending
NMLS#: NMLS# 339255
Phone: 800-774-7650
Email: eric@summitlr.com
Website: http://www.summitlender.com
Real Estate Market Insider 7/22/2024
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This Week's
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Neutral

High
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Real Estate Report

Foreign-born homebuyers are look elsewhere

If you’d rather foreigners buy homes elsewhere and leave the rest to us, you’d be thrilled right now. MarketWatch’s Aarthi Swaminathan reports that foreign buyers are fleeing the U.S. housing market, with sales to buyers from outside the U.S. falling to an all-time low.

According to a recently released report by the National Association of Realtors international buyers purchased 54,300 homes, worth $42 billion in total, in the 12 months through this March — down 36% from the year-earlier period, falling for the seventh year in a row. That figure is now at an all-time low since the NAR began tracking the data in 2009.

Foreign buyers tend to buy high end and in cash. The median purchase price among non-U.S. buyers was $475,000, compared with $392,600 for all existing homes sold. And half of foreign buyers forked over cash, versus 28% of all existing-home buyers.

What happened, you may ask? Currency shifts attributed to the declining sales to foreign buyers. “The strong U.S. dollar makes international travel cheaper for Americans but makes U.S. homes much more expensive for foreigners,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the NAR, said in a statement. “Therefore, it’s not surprising to see a pullback in U.S. home sales from foreign buyers.”

Low inventory didn’t help. “Historically low housing inventory and escalating prices remain significant factors in constraining home sales for American and international buyers alike,” Yun said.

Which country tops the list for buying our homes? Canadians, followed by the Chinese, Mexicans, East Indians and Columbians, with the top destinations for their dollars being Florida, Texas, California, Arizona and Georgia. But it was buyers from China that had the deepest pockets, with the highest average purchase price at $1.3 million, the NAR said. They were also more likely to buy in more expensive states: 25% bought a property in California, and 10% in New York.

Swaminathan reports that Florida was the top destination for foreign buyers, led by buyers from Latin America. “About 35% of foreign buyers in the state were from Latin America—which includes Mexico, Colombia and Brazil, among other countries—while 27% were from China.”

Some of this is over politics, evidently. Swaminathan cites ISG World’s Miami-based chief executive Craig Studnicky, who told MarketWatch in an interview that most of his buyers from the Latin America region were motivated by political concerns in their home countries, leading them to park their money in Florida.

“Political shifts in places like Brazil, where leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva returned to office last year, and Colombia, where the country’s first-ever left-wing president Gustavo Petro came to power in 2022, are leading some of Studnicky’s clients to purchase property in the U.S.,” he said, adding that Miami is ‘Plan B’ for all South American families. “When there’s total chaos in South America—when the wheels fall off the bus, and they’re moving money out.”

MarketWatch, Realtor, TBWS

This Week's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

rtgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market worsened by -32 bps last week. This may have been enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Inflation, 2) Central Banks and 3) Report Card.

1) Inflation: The Fed's key measure of inflation, Core PCE will hit on Friday just days before the July FOMC Meeting. After trailing lower in the last MOM reading, it is expected to increase this time around. Regardless, a stronger (higher) reading will be negative for rates while a lower reading will be great for rates.

2) Central Banks: The People's Bank of China has already lowered their main interest rate by -10BPS this morning which was not expected but does follow a series of weaker than expected GDP data. We will also hear from the Bank of Canada which may also lower their rate.

3) Report Card: We get the preliminary, first look at the 2nd QTR GDP on Thursday, it is expected to come in at 2%.

Treasury Auction: We are dumping a massive amount of debt into the marketplace this week.

07/23 2 year note $69B

07/24 5 year note $70B

07/25 7 year note $44B

This Week's Potential Volatility: High

This morning markets are moving within a narrow trading channel. Volatility has started low with no data on Monday but will increase to high later in the week.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

About Eric & Matt Gausepohl

Summit Lending has over 15 years of experience in the mortgage industry. We are here to help home borrowers arrange mortgage finances while explaining the complicated procedure of any type of home loan in it's simplest terms.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.