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Eric & Matt Gausepohl

Summit Lending
NMLS#: NMLS# 339255
Phone: 800-774-7650
Email: eric@summitlr.com
Website: http://www.summitlender.com
Real Estate Market Insider 3/31/2025
Mortgage Rates
Currently Trending
7 Day Mortgage
Rate Forecast
This Week's
Potential Volatility

Neutral

Neutral

High
(by Sigma Research)
Real Estate Report

Housing market defies gravity

The price of an American home seems to be going nowhere but up as sales prices continued to increase through the first month of the new year.

According to Realtor.com’s Snejana Farberov, the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index data released Tuesday showed that the nationwide price went up 4.1% in January from a year ago. “Home prices in the 20 major U.S. metros tracked by the index were up 4.7% in the 12 months ending in January, up from a 4.5% increase in the previous month. The 10-city index also increased, going up 5.3%,” says Farberov.

The numbers indicate New York City with the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 7.7% surge in January, followed by Chicago and Boston, with upswings of 7.5% and 6.6%, respectively.

On the other end of the spectrum, Tampa, FL, showed the lowest return, dipping 1.5%, making it the only market to post an annual decline.

"As the country as a whole faces tight inventory levels, regional variation in the housing market means that the impact varies geographically," says Realtor analyst Hannah Jones. "Relatively strong construction activity in the South and West have helped take some pressure off of home prices. However, the Northeast and Midwest continue to see demand significantly outstrip supply, which has led to more considerable price growth in the regions."

Farberov reports that this month's Case-Shiller release covers home sales that happened over November, December, and January that included skyrocketing mortgage rates that peaked at a nine-month high.

A closer look reveals home price trends during the second half of the year posting declines as well, with San Francisco recording the largest six-month drop at 3.4%, followed by Tampa at 3.2%.

“Only four of the 20 metros managed to eke out price gains during this stretch: New York, Chicago, Phoenix, and Boston, pointing to a widespread cooling of the market,” says Farberov.

S & P’s Nicholas Godec explains, ”Rising mortgage rates throughout the year elevated monthly payment burdens, which, combined with already high home prices, pushed affordability to multi-decade lows in many regions.” He says a lack of affordable homes likely contributed to the market softening in the back half of the year, with both buyers and sellers staying on the sidelines.

Interestingly enough, markets in the Northeast and the Midwest are continuing to reap benefits from post-COVID-19 pandemic urban recovery, while Sunbelt metros like Tampa and Phoenix that saw dramatic surges in home prices earlier in the cycle have since been on the receiving end of the sharpest downturns.

Jones says economic uncertainty could interfere with the spring market by making buyers and sellers more cautious. "Nevertheless, the recent downward mortgage rate trend and building inventory could present opportunities for buyers who have been waiting for their moment to take the leap," says the analyst.

Realtor, TBWS

This Week's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market changed by 0 bps last week. This was not enough to change mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Tariffs, 2) Jobs 3) Domestic News.

1) Tariffs: The biggest factor in bond yields this week will come from the April 2nd (and beyond) Tariffs and the escalating trade war.

2) Jobs: We will have Big Jobs Friday this week. It will be interesting to see if there is any impact with the massive Government downsizing.

3) Domestic News: Outside of Jobs data, the ISMs will get the most weight from bonds.

This Week's Potential Volatility: High

This morning markets are moving sideways. Volatility has started low but will likely become high later in the week.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

About Eric & Matt Gausepohl

Summit Lending has over 15 years of experience in the mortgage industry. We are here to help home borrowers arrange mortgage finances while explaining the complicated procedure of any type of home loan in it's simplest terms.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.