Shiny Trinket

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I’m among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways to slightly beter today. The MBS market improved by +26 bps last week. This may have been enough to lower mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility last week.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

1) The Fed: Wednesday will see their latest Interest Rate Decision and Policy Statement followed by a live presser with Fed Chair Powell. This is not one of the meetings where the economic projections (dot plot charts) are released. The markets do not expect any action out of the FOMC, however bonds will be very sensitive to any discussion (or progression in discussions) around the timing of "tapering" their massive $120B of Treasuries and MBS each month.

2) Inflation: The Fed's preferred key measure of inflation, PCE, will hit on Friday. This is expected to once again be very high with the headline “PCE tipping above 4.0%.”

3) GDP: We’ll get our first look at the 2nd QTR GDP data on Thursday, which is expected to be in the 8.5% range.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This week the market will be waiting for news out of the federal reserve on Wednesday and then reports on Friday. Volatility will likely increase in the latter half of the week.

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Matt McGuire is a Mortgage Loan Originator with Edge Home Finance, specializing in residential home loans for real estate purchase and refinances. He enjoys making his clients happy while helping them achieve their dreams and goals. Matt has spent the last 10 years in the mortgage and banking industries, gaining valuable experience in loan origination, loan processing, underwriting, post-closing/loan servicing, and management. This unique blend of skills and knowledge helps Matt walk all of his customers through each step of the loan process with the care and guidance they deserve. Matt was born in Florida, is a proud Richfield Spartan, and currently resides in Lakeville with his wife, two dogs, and two cats. Matt is a huge sports fan and also enjoys traveling, fishing, and boating.

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Matt McGuire (NMLS 1535656) - A Member of Edge Home Finance Corporation (NMLS 891464)