How Rates Move:
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up. Tracking these securities real-time is critical. For more information about the rate market, contact me directly. I'm among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.
Rates Currently Trending:
Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market improved by +20 bps last week. This may have improved mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility last week.
Today's Rate Forecast:
Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact your rates this week: 1)Jobs, 2) Geopolitical and 3) Central Bank
1) Jobs: We get a ton of headline jobs/wage related data this week and a lot of related data buried within reports like ISM as well. This will all culminate in Big Jobs Friday, the markets will be keen to see the juxtaposition of approximately 7M people falling off of the various CARES/Covid checks for a portion of September vs. those electing/choosing to go back to work in September.
2) Geopolitical: The main focus is on the Debt Ceiling as we will run into that sometime close to October 18th. There are two main pushes to get around that, one is just a bill being pushed that would suspend the debt ceiling, the other is through the whole reconciliation process that has gone amuck over the $3.5T bill.
3) Central Bank: We have key interest rate decisions from New Zealand and Australia but the focus will be on our Talking Feds Montgomery (took over for Rosengren), Bullard, Quarles, Barkin, Bostic and Mester.
Today's Potential Rate Volatility:
This morning we're seeing some sideways motion in the markets. Volatility is moderate to low with most of the focus this week on the debt ceiling and Big Jobs Friday.
If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.