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Loan Depot
Sales Manager
Barry David Krevoy
Sales Manager
Loan Depot
NMLS#: 923896
Phone: 949-735-4009
Email: barry@loanofficerbarry.com
Website: http://www.loanofficerbarry.com
Daily Market Analysis

Rate markets opened weaker this morning (prices) and higher in yield. The 10-yr at 8:15 am EST was at 3.08%, +2 bps from Friday’s improvement that dropped the 10-yr to 3.06%, -5 bps, and MBS prices +100 bps. No real movement and not likely there will be much change this week. Trade meetings continue between the US and China; over the weekend Sec of Treasury Mnuchin and the administration’s Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer added more debate. Mnuchin on Fox News Sunday said the U.S. was “putting the trade war on hold” and wouldn’t assess tariffs on Beijing while the two sides talked. Lighthizer then out saying tariffs remained a tool in working out trade imbalances. This morning Mnuchin commenting that this isn’t a war but discussions to balance the trade between the two economic powers.

Initial reactions this morning to Mnuchin ’s remarks over the weekend is pushing US stock indexes higher in pre-open trading, DJIA +240 points. German markets are closed today, although it doesn’t’ mean much.

This week will see increasingly less trading as we move closer to the weekend and the Memorial Day holiday. April home sales and April durable goods orders are the headlines.

Stocks held strong following the increasing strength in the dollar and comments from Mnuchin over the weekend. He made a nice effort to remove the word “war” from the dialogue. The use of it does get headlines, but as we have continued to comment, no one wins an economic war between the two biggest economies in the world when both would suffer. It will take most of this year and possibly into next year to resolve the trade disputes to both countries’ benefits, but both will have to relent on some issues. China praised a dialing back of trade tension with the United States, saying an agreement was in the interests of both countries, while state media trumpeted what it saw as China's refusal to surrender.

Treasury auctions, the FOMC minutes and home sales for April are the dominant influences this week. Trade is also in the picture and depends on who in Washington is talking at the moment. $99B of notes are being sold this week as borrowing amounts will increase with increased spending and higher rates. The Fed will increase the Federal Funds rate at the June meeting next month. In the meantime, the minutes from the March meeting may influence market thinking. Trade volume should thin out by Wednesday afternoon, and by Thursday only caretakers will be on the desks.

This Week’s Calendar:

Tuesday,

10:00 am May Richmond Fed manufacturing index (10 frm -3 in April)

1:00 pm $33B 2 yr note auction

Wednesday,

7:00 am weekly MBA mortgage applications

8:30 am April new home sales (677K -2.5% from March)

1:00 pm $36B 5 yr note auction

2:00 pm FOMC minutes from March meeting

Thursday,

8:30 am weekly jobless claims ( -2K to 220K)

9:00 am March FHFA home price index (+0.7%)

10:00 am April existing home sales (5600K unchanged from March)

1:00 pm $30B 7 yr note auction

Friday,

8:30 am April durable goods orders (-1.3%, ex transportation orders +0.6%)

10:00 am May final U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index (99.0 from 98.8)

2:00 pm bond and mortgage markets close.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 yr. note: -3/32 (9 bp) 3.07% +0.5 bp

5 yr. note: -2/32 (6 bp) 2.90% +1 bp

2 Yr. note: -2/32 (6 bp) 2.90% +2 bp

30 yr. bond: -3/32 (9 bp) 3.20% unch

Libor Rates: 1 mo. 1.952%; 3 mo. 2.329%; 6 mo. 2.498%; 1 yr. 2.764%

30 yr. FNMA 4.0 June: @9:30 101.17 -9 bp (+3 bp from 9:30 Friday)

15 yr. FNMA 4.0: @9:30 102.33 unch (+6 bp from 9:30 Friday)

30 yr. GNMA 4.0: @9:30 101.75 -8 bp (+5 bp from 9:30 Friday)

Dollar/Yen: 111.18 +0.43 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1767 -$0.0003

Dollar Index: 93.83 +0.12

Gold: $1288.60 -$2.70

Crude Oil: $71.65 +$0.37

DJIA: 24,995.18 +280.09

NASDAQ: 7426.20 +71.86

S&P 500: 2733.54 +20.57

About Barry David Krevoy

Barry is a Sales Manager with Loan Depot in Irvine CA. In his blog, www.LoanOfficerBarry.com, he delivers his insights on the Mortgage Industry, Real Estate Market and Economy. His mission is to provide the finest level of service with proper locking advice and communication.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Rates are for 45 day pricing and are not for public distribution. Rate and APR will vary based on factors such as points, loan amount, loan-to-value, borrower’s credit, property type and occupancy. Loan programs are based on owner occupied and full documentation.