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Barry David Krevoy
Sr. Mortgage Advisor
Krevoy Team at Fairway Mortgage
NMLS#: 923896
Phone: 949-735-4009
Email: barry@krevoyteam.com
Website: http://www.krevoyteam.com
Daily Market Analysis 7/18/2025

Yesterday was very quiet, treasuries ended unchanged as did MBS prices. Early this morning the 10 year note at 8 am ET -3 bps, MBS prices began +13 bps from yesterday, stock indexes fractionally higher. Both the S&P and NASDAQ making new highs. Equity markets focusing on earnings reports.

At 8:30 am June housing starts and permits; starts expected at 1.300 million, were 1.321 million and May revised from 1.256 million to 1.263 million. Permits thought to be 1.380 million increased to 1.397 million. Starts +4.6% from May, in May down 9.7%, as noted yesterday most starts were in multi-family, up 30.6%, single family starts +883K. permits up 0.2%. Permits for buildings with five or more units rose by 8.1% to an annualized rate of 478 thousand, while single-family permits decreased by 3.7% to 866 thousand. Regionally, permits increased in the South (4.4% to 775 thousand), and were flat in the Midwest (at 217 thousand), but declined in the Northeast (-11.4% to 109 thousand) and the West (-5.1% to 296 thousand).

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller out saying he is concerned about hiring in the private sector and wants a rate cut at the FOMC meeting. “The private sector is not doing as well as everybody thinks it is,” Waller said Friday in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “Most of the employment growth we saw last month was in the public sector, and that means the private sector is not doing particularly well.” The June employment data two weeks ago was overall better than estimates at +147K but private jobs accounted for just 47K jobs. Waller has been consistent wanting lower rates, but he is more a loner within the FOMC.

On the tariffs front, the EU is proposing a removal of a 10% import duty on U.S. vehicles if Trump lowers the 25% tariff on EU auto imports below 20%. Treasury Secretary Bessent is meeting with Japanese officials at this weekend's World Exposition in Osaka.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +52, NASDAQ +78, S&P +13. 10 year note at 9:30 4.43% -3 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +11 bps from yesterday’s close and +11 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am the mid-month University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, expected at 61.4 from 60.7 in June.

There is technical resistance for the bellwether 10 year note at 4.50%, the last three days it has bumped close to it, this morning on Wallers comments the note has backed down on hopes the Fed may cut rates on July 30th at the next FOMC meeting, but the improvement is more technical than fundamental.

PRICES @ 10:00 AM

10 year note: 4.43% -3 bp

5 year note: 3.96% - 4bp

2 year note: 3.88% -3 bp

30 year bond: 4.99% -2 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.20 +11 bp (+11 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 102.97 +6 bp (+9 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.20 +10 bp (+12 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)

Dollar/Yen: 148.36 -0.21 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1655 +$0.0058

Dollar Index: 98.18-0.55

Gold: $3,360.10 +$14.80

Bitcoin: 118,869 -129

Crude Oil: $6844 +$0.90

DJIA: 44,415 -69

NASDAQ: 20,927 +44

S&P 500: 6308 +10

About Barry David Krevoy

Barry David Krevoy is a Senior Mortgage Advisor for Fairway Mortgage in Irvine California. Barry has been a loan officer for a little over 17 years and he is United States Marine Corps Veteran. Barry is also a certified instructor with the California Bureau of Real Estate (CalBRE) through VAREP (Veteran Association of Real Estate Professionals) and teaches Realtors and other Loan Officers a course called Military Veteran Housing Certification (MVHC) about how they can best serve the Veteran Community.

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Rates are for 45 day pricing and are not for public distribution. Rate and APR will vary based on factors such as points, loan amount, loan-to-value, borrower’s credit, property type and occupancy. Loan programs are based on owner occupied and full documentation.