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Yesterday a very solid 10 year note auction.
This morning after the 10 year yield fell 7 bps yesterday the note began 1 bps higher at 4.35%.
Weekly jobless claims last week were expected at 238K from 232K (revised from 233K), claims declined to 227K. It was the fourth consecutive decline in initial claims to the lowest count in seven weeks, consolidating the view that the US labor market remains relatively robust. Continuing claims however increased by 10K to 1.965 million, the total number of continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs for the week ending June 21 was 1,928,512, an increase of 37,859 from the previous week and compared to 1,845,179 in the comparable week a year ago. Weekly claims declining while continuing claims increased does point to a slowing in hiring although given the uncertainty over tariffs employment still looks good. One month ago, claims were at 248K. The four-week moving average for initial claims decreased by 5,750 to 235,500. The four-week moving average for continuing claims increased by 3,500 to 1,955,250, reaching its highest level since November 20, 2021.
The president is sending letters to 21 countries this week: still holding to August 1st as the deadline to begin tariffs. The tariff rates for those 21 countries range from 20% to 40%. They are all set to kick in on August 1st.
At 9:30 am ET the DJIA opened -41 after increasing 218 yesterday, NASDAQ +19 from 193 yesterday, S&P -2 after increasing 38 yesterday. 10 year note at 9:30 am +2 bps to 4.35%. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -11 bps from yesterday’s close and unchanged from 9:30 am yesterday.
At 1 pm this afternoon Treasury will auction $22B of 30 year bonds, a tough auction with investors worried about the US debt, however yesterday’s 10 year auction was met with good demand and sent rates lower.
This week there isn’t much economic data, it has been all about trade and Treasury auctions. Next week several key data points headlined with June CPI and PPI on Tuesday and Wednesday.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.36% +2 bp
5 year note: 3.94% +4 bp
2 year note: 3.88% +3 bp
30 year bond: 4.89% +2 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.37 -11 bp (unch from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 103.11 -11 bp (-7 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.34 -3 bp (+7 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 146.51 +0.18 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1696 -$0.0027
Dollar Index: 97.65 +0.10
Gold: $3,337.10 +$16.10
Bitcoin: 110,807 -932
Crude Oil: $66.72 -$1.66
DJIA: 44,497 +38
NASDAQ: 20,543 -68
S&P 500: 6226 -7
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