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Robin Milam


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Email: robin@the-milams.com
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Senior Loan Officer
Dona Knapp
Senior Loan Officer
Empire Home Loans
NMLS#: #1839243
Phone: 530-277-3662
Email: dknapp@nccn.net
Website: http://www.empirehomeloans.com
Rates At a Glance
Mortgage Rates
Currently Trending
7 Day Mortgage
Rate Forecast
This Week's
Potential Volatility

Neutral

Neutral

Average
(by Sigma Research)
Realtor Report

Homebuilders see green in abandoned golf courses:

For decades, golf course homes were sold as the ideal location for golfers and non-golfers alike — a place where one could have a permanently manicured view of greens, massive trees, and welcoming ponds fed by the results of unfortunate putts and drives.

Now that it appears the trend to build and maintain golf courses is fading, builders all over the country who find themselves running out of land in desirable locations are putting up new homes where golf has been falling out of favor. According to Kelly Pedro’s recent Builderonline.com article, the sport has plunged in popularity from 30.6 million regular golfers in 2003 to 23.8 million in 2017, with figures supplied by the National Golf Foundation, a trade group. “Aging baby boomers are dropping the sport en masse, and many millennials never acquired the fairway obsession in the first place. Generation Z? Forget it.”

Golf’s misfortune, however, is becoming builders’ good juju, opening up some desirable acreage for new home developments in crowded cities and pricey suburbs. While there is no data currently available on how many of these courses have been transformed into residential communities, the trend is growing, as typical 18-hole courses offer 150 acres of rolling topography and it's accompanying developer bliss.

"It's an opportunity for builders to build closer in [to city centers and other more congested areas] and offer new-build homes in areas that are dominated by older homes,” says real estate consultant Lesley Deutch in the BUILDER article. “Usually [they] have to build out in the suburbs. In South Florida, there's very little land left, so golf courses provide a good opportunity.” Around ultra-expensive cities, where land is at a premium, lush greens are getting new life as residential or mixed-use communities of homes and shopping may help to alleviate the crunch.

Shuttered golf courses in Florida, once the golf mecca of the country, are now occupied by residential developments with hundreds of single-family homes, selling out inventory less than two years after the homes hit the market. Their success is the result of offering a seductive combo of attractive pricing in a pristine setting located close to city centers.

Experts predict that more of the nation's greens will see a similar trajectory, according to Pedro, who cites how Minneapolis’ Star Tribune in Minneapolis reported last year that more than 900 acres of golf courses had been redeveloped in that city’s metro area between 2010 and 2016, much of it into homes.

The challenges of building on the carcasses of old golf balls is not as easy as one would surmise, however. Golf courses are havens for pesticides designed to keep their fairways green, the clean-up of which can be costly. And those rolling greens are not necessarily ideally graded for housing, often requiring an entire revamping of the area. “Builders and developers also need to secure city zoning approvals to convert the space into residential housing,” says Pedro. “Many are also confronted with not-in-my-backyard attitudes from neighbors who don't want that beautiful, soothing green fairway they pass on their way to work each morning suddenly converted into housing, bringing in hordes of new neighbors.”

Whether the locals like it or not, however, more courses across the U.S. are calling it quits, freeing up tens of thousands of acres of hard-to-come-by land in prime locations.

Source: BUILDER, TBWS

This Week's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional overnment (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgageand G-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market.  This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events.  When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down.  When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.  Tracking these securities real-time is critical.  For more information about the rate market, contact me directly.  I’m among few mortgage professionals who have access to live trading screens during market hours.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are trending sideways this morning.  Last week the MBS market improved by +9bps.  This was not enough to move rates lower last week. There was a good deal of mortgage rate volatility last week.

This Week's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact mortgage rates. 1) Jobs 2) Trade Wars and 3) The Fed.

1) Jobs: We have no less than 12 different economic releases that address the labor market (jobs, wages, etc). Friday's employment situation will get the most weight with bond traders giving the YOY average hourly earnings the most attention. The estimates call for a 2.8% to 3.0% range, anything above 2.9% will be negative for mortgage rates.

2) Trade Wars: NAFTA has been replaced with a last-minute agreement between Mexico, Canada, and the U.S. called USMCA. This agreement must still be approved by Congress though. The spotlight continues to be on the China vs. U.S. Trade War.

3) The Fed: After last week's Fed meeting, the blackout period of Fed Speeches is over, and we will hear from a lot of FOMC members this week:

  • 10/01/18 Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari and Eric Rosengren
  • 10/02/18 Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Randal Quarles
  • 10/03/18 Charles Evans, Tom Barkin, Patrick Harker, Loretta Mester

This Week's Potential Volatility: Average

Mortgage rates are likely to move sideways in this new channel through Thursday. Friday, with the jobs data, we could see some rate volatility if the markets are surprised.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

About Dona Knapp

Dona Knapp has over 20 years of experience, which is evidenced by her extensive knowledge of the lending industry, making her a great source of information for their clients. Her commitment to excellence has earned her a reputation of customer satisfaction and building relationships that last far beyond the original transaction. Her team was strategically designed to provide superior service, uninterrupted accessibility and extraordinary products to meet all your lending needs. Don't settle for less, when you can work with the best!

About This Report And Disclosure Information

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.