This morning the 10 year at 8:30 am ET 4.36% +1 bp, MBS prices -4 bps from Thursday’s close.
Over the weekend Commerce Sec Lutnick said the final deadline for deals will be August 1st, it had been set for this coming Wednesday. The President confirmed that the U.S. will start delivering letters on Monday, detailing country-specific tariff rates and any agreements reached with various trading partners. The still uncertain tariffs keeping rates from declining. Look for a few trade deals to be announced this week.
This week’s key focuses; Treasury auctions, weekly claims, FOMC minutes; not much. Most focus will be on news of trade talks. Economic data won’t play much of a role this week, weekly claims and continuing claims the most important in a thin week. Trade talks will also be center stage but again Trump has pushed the deadline from this Wednesday to August 1st. It sounds like some key deals may hit this week. Once Japan, South Korea, India, China, and the EU trade deals are set that should conclude most all of the tariffs of consequence; most all other countries that trade with the US are not significant.
This Week’s Economic Calendar:
Monday,
No releases
Tuesday,
6 am June NFIB small business optimism index (98.7 from 98.8)
1 pm $58B 3 year note auction
3 pm May consumer credit (+$11.5B from $17.9B in April)
Wednesday,
7 am weekly MBA mortgage applications
10 am May preliminary wholesale inventories (-0.3%)
1 pm $39B 10 year note auction
2 pm FOMC minutes
Thursday,
8:30 am weekly jobless claims (238K from 233K)
1 pm $22B 30 year bond auction
Friday,
2 pm June Treasury budget statement (+$50.0B from -$316.0B in May)
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 4.37% +2 bp
5 year note: 3.95% +1 bp
2 year note: 3.89% unch
30 year bond: 4.90% +3 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.40 -6 bp (-5 bp from 9:30 am Thursday)
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 103.09 -3 bp (-6 bp from 9:30 am Thursday)
30 year GNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 101.29 -6 bp (-7 bp from 9:30 am Thursday)
Dollar/Yen: 145.76 +1.28 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1740 -$0.0041
Dollar Index: 97.32 +0.14
Gold: $3,318.00 -$24.90
Bitcoin: 108,127 -437
Crude Oil: $67.43 +$0.43
DJIA: 44,754 -75
NASDAQ: 20,495 -106
S&P 500: 6260 -20
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