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Domestic trouble in Iran over the weekend when Iran leaders said its government did shoot down the Ukrainian passenger plane killing all aboard, including 13 Iranians. While the number of protesters that have taken to the streets isn't extreme, the protests directed to the Iranian government as people chanted in opposition to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and calls to rid the country of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Protesters in the videos said arrests had been made and tear gas fired at crowds. The US is economically squeezing Iran and its economy is close to collapse, the leadership is increasingly under pressure. The admission that the government shot down the passenger plane and the killing of the terrorist general leader of Iran's intelligence and terrorist squad may lead to more unrest.
Nancy Pelosi said she will send the impeachment to the Senate this week, ending a three-week standoff between her and Mitch McConnell over how the Senate will conduct the trial. Pelosi will name the House managers, who'll serve as the prosecutors in the Senate proceedings, and transmit the two articles of impeachment. Pelosi plans to meet with House Democrats tomorrow. Lots of political drama; 10 months before the election and an impeached president on the ballot.
At 9:30 am ET the DJIA opened +59, NASDAQ +35, S&P +8. 10
yr. 1.85% +3 bps. MBS prices -5 Bps from Friday's close and -9 bps from 9:30 Friday morning.
Tensions between the US and Iran are lessening today. The Iranian government under serious resistance from its people calling for the religious Clerics to "get lost."
This week has a lot of events and a substantial economic calendar.
Pelosi is sending impeachment to the Senate. Tomorrow another Democratic debate, the last one leading to the Iowa caucus in three weeks. The political drama and geopolitical situation shouldn't be what markets focus on as much as the economic calendar; this week likely more focused on the status of the economy based on the data. The only data today is the Dec Treasury budget expected -$15.0B; the 2020 budget shortfall will exceed $1 trillion.
This Week’s Calendar:
Monday,
2:00 pm Dec Treasury budget (-$15.0B)
Tuesday,
6:00 am NFTB small business optimism index (104.4 from 104.7)
8:30 am Dec CPI (+0.3%, yr./yr. 2.3%; less food and energy +0.2%,
yr./yr. 2.3%)
Wednesday,
7:00 am weekly MBA mortgage applications
8:30 am Dec PPI (+0.2%, yr./yr. 1.3%; less food and energy +0.2%,
yr./yr. +1.4%)
2:00 pm Fed Beige Book
Thursday,
8:30 am weekly jobless claims (214K unch)
January Philadelphia Fed business index (3.4 from 0.3)
Dec retail sales (+0.3%, less autos +0.5%, control group +0.4%)
Dec import and export prices (imports +0.3%, yr./yr. +0.4%; exports +0.3%,
yr./yr-0.9%)
10:00 am Jan NAHB housing market index (75 from 76)
Nov business inventories (0.0% from +0.2%)
Friday,
8:30 am Dec housing starts and permits (starts 1373K +0.6%; permits 1458K +0.2%)
9:15 am Dec industrial production and capacity utilization (production -0.3%, manufacturing -0.2%: capacity utilization 77.1%
from 77.3%)
10:00 am U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index (99.3 unch from Dec)
Nov JOLTS job openings (7.100 mil from 7.267 mil in Oct)
PRICES @ 10:00 AM ET
10 yr. note: 1.85% +3 bp
5 yr. note: 1.65% +2 bp
2 Yr. note: 1.58% unch
30 yr. bond: 2.31% +3 bp
Libor Rates: 1 mo. 1.676%; 3 mo. 1.837%; 6 mo. 1.872%; 1
yr. 1.966% (1/10/20)
30 yr. FNMA 3.0: @9:30 101.64 -5 bp (-9 bp from 9:30 Friday)
15 yr. FNMA 3.0: @9:30 102.62 unch (-5 bp from 9:30 Friday)
30 yr. GNMA 3.0: @9:30 102.59 -9 bp (-11 bp from 9:30 Friday)
Dollar/Yuan: $6.8945 -$0.0250
Dollar/Yen: 109.90 +0.44 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1122 unch
Dollar Index: 97.44 +0.08
Gold: $1551.50 -$8.60
Crude Oil: $58.47 -$0.57
DJIA: 28,883.25 +59.48
NASDAQ: 92202.8 +41.42
S&P 500: 3275.50 +10.15
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