| It is Fed week, Wednesday the FOMC will announce a 25 bp increase in the FF rate. Not the increase that is the focus but how the Fed and Jerome Powell will address the outlook and what the Fed may be contemplating over the next few months. Not only the Fed, but the BofJ, ECB, UK central banks set to announce their plans. The economy can be measured in many ways; weaker growth, wage pressures, commodity prices, earnings from businesses, take your pick. At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -107, NASDAQ -104, S&P -23. 10 year note 3.55% +4 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -25 bps from Friday and unchanged from 9:30 am Friday morning. For the last three weeks the 10 year note has traded between 3.60% and 3.40% with very solid support at 3.40%. The trading range is subject to breaking on Wednesday when the policy statement from the FOMC is released and Jerome Powell’s press conference. With the lockout the last week for Fed officials’ comments the market doesn’t have any new opinions based on remarks. The last we heard from various Fedsters is the Fed remains intent on driving inflation to 2.0% and won’t back down; clear as a bell, but the market is tilting toward believing the Fed will stop rate increases after Wednesday. The Fed says yes, the market saying no. Investors bet fading inflation will allow the central bank to soon cease raising borrowing costs and then cut them later this year, wishful thinking as far as Powell is concerned. This Week’s Economic Calendar: Today, no scheduled data releases, a minor release at 10:30 am ET, the Dallas Fed manufacturing index. Tuesday Q4 employment cost index (+1.1%), Case/Shiller home prices index (+0.5%), Jan Chicago purchasing mgrs. index (45.1 from 44.9), Jan consumer confidence index (109.0 from 108.3). Wednesday FOMC policy statement and Jerome Powell, weekly MBA mortgage applications, Jan ADP private jobs (158K from 235K), Jan ISM manufacturing index (48.0 from 48.4), Dec construction spending (-0.1%), Dec JOLTS job openings 910.2 mil from 10.485 mil in Nov). Thursday weekly jobless claims (193K from 186K), Q4 productivity and unit labor costs (productivity +2.4% from 0.8% in Q3, unit lab or costs +1.5% from 2.4% in Nov), Dec factory orders (+2.2%). Friday Jan ISM se4rvices sector index (49.6 unchanged from Dec), Jan employment data: PRICES @ 10:00 AM 10 year note: 3.55% +4 bp 5 year note: 3.67% +6 bp 2 Year note: 4.27% +8 bp 30 year bond: 3.64% +1 bp Libor Rates: 1 month 5.70%; 3 month 4.825%; 6 month 5.102%; 1 year 5.136% (1/27/23) 30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 102.39 -16 bp (+12 bp from 9:30 am Friday) 30 year FNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.25 -25 bp (unch from 9:30 am Friday) 30 year GNMA 5.5: @9:30 am 101.25 -23 bp (-2 bp from 9:30 am Friday) Dollar/Yuan: $6.7504 -$0.0343 Dollar/Yen: 120.25 +0.41 yen Dollar/Euro: $1.0897 +$0.0029 Dollar Index: 101.88 -0.05 Gold: $1926.60 -$2.80 Bitcoin: 23,197 -595 Crude Oil: $78.69 -$0.99 DJIA: 33,965 -13 NASDAQ: 11,534 -88 S&P 500: 4055 -15 | 
